China's booming PV market: Filled with smoke and fire

by Tom Morrow and Dylen Liu

With ten highly prominent initial public offerings (IPOs) racked up already, China's solar energy industry is poised to make a major impact on worldwide polysilicon capacity and solar cell production. However, determining who will succeed among the new firms in the domestic and international market remains highly uncertain as it is likely that at least some publicly announced plans will not materialize into actual projects, write Tom Morrow and Dylen Liu.

In the last two years, China’s ten IPOs have raised nearly US$2 billion to meet the world’s growing demand for PV-related products and services. The attractiveness of PV to Chinese industrial policy is also understandable due to China’s internal demand for energy, the exciting global economic projections for the solar industry, and the alignment of PV manufacturing needs with China’s current industrial and technology capabilities. Indeed, China’s domestic market for accumulated PV installation is expected to reach 300 MW by 2010, up from only 80 MW accumulated and 10 MW yearly installation in 2006. But the Chinese PV industry is planning to more than meet its domestic needs.

Since 2004, the country’s solar cell production and capacity have reached growth rates from 100%–400% per year, contributing to the global shortage of polysilicon feedstocks. Cell capacity of 4 GW has been announced for this year and, after growing a projected 40% in 2008 so far, China’s solar wafer capacity is also expected to reach 4 GW. However, how much polysilicon will be available and who will be able to obtain it remains extremely uncertain.

Unbalanced polysilicon supply chain

In response to China’s - and global – demand, a swathe of polysilicon production projects have been instigated. Reports of new polysilicon projects in China have appeared regularly in business, technology and trade press over the last year and in 2007, SEMI identified 27 separate polysilicon production projects that had been announced.

Furthermore, the SEMI analysis of the Chinese PV market is currently in progress and these estimates are preliminary. Investment for these projects comes from a variety of sources, especially silicon manufacturers, traditional energy producers and chemical companies. Of these 27 projects, seven projects will rely upon China-based technologies, while six will source technology from Russia, five from the Europe or the US, and four projects will be a partnered combination of Chinese and international technology. These projects will be located throughout China, with the leading regions being the western part of the country, which will see 11 projects, and the Yangtze delta, with four projects.

However, as of December 2007, 20 of these projects had begun construction and of the identified 27 polysilicon projects that have been announced - equating to nearly 30,000 tonnes of polysilicon capacity by the 2008 year-end - SEMI estimates less than 5000 tonnes will actually be produced this year. By 2010, of the 70,000 tonne capacity that has been announced, SEMI projects that only 30,000 tonnes will reach the market. In response to the discrepancy between announced and expected capacity, nearly all Chinese cell and module manufacturers have entered into long-term, expensive, supply contracts, although these contract prices are still much lower than the spot market prices, which were around $400/kg in December 2007.

Nonetheless, the list of new developments in China continues to grow. This month, for example, the DuPont chemicals company announced it will soon begin construction on a PV research centre in Hong Kong and a manufacturing facility in Shenzhen to support ‘the rapidly growing photovoltaic (PV) solar energy industry.’

DuPont expects growth in the photovoltaic market to exceed 30% in each of the next several years and the company has made significant investments in product development and capacity expansions to help keep pace with the demand.

The company says that expansions in Hong Kong and Shenzhen will provide new offerings to serve the amorphous silicon (a-Si) thin film market, adding that the growth rate for thin film is projected to be approximately twice as high as demand for c-Si. DuPont expects this increase to drive specifications for both new and existing products that serve the thin film industry.

‘Through investments in materials, technology development and manufacturing, DuPont is accelerating its ability to deliver innovations that will improve the lifetime and efficiency of photovoltaic modules, and also have enough production capability to help keep pace with the fast rising global demand,’ said David B. Miller, group vice president of DuPont Electronic & Communication Technologies.

An emerging solar equipment industry

In addition to polysilicon, China will also benefit from localized silicon crystal growth. Xi’an University of Technology, Jingyi and Jingyuntong are all qualified vendors for mono crystal ingot growth equipment. Silicon ingot capacity will reach 20,000 tonnes in monocrystalline and nearly 23,000 tonnes in polycrystalline in 2008. In addition to polysilicon, solar grade wafers and solar cells and modules, China is expected to witness the development of an emerging domestic equipment industry, representing the entire production process including thermal processes, plasma etch, wet bench, PECVD and semi-automated screen printing. Supporting equipment and component vendors are also expected to emerge in China.

Indeed, in April Trina Solar announced that five of its key suppliers have signed investment agreements to establish production facilities in the Changzhou Trina Photovoltaic Industrial Park. The suppliers, which include Guangzhou ChienSong Grind Material Co., Ltd., Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd., Ltd., Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co., Ltd., and a European manufacturer of PV glass, produce products such as reclaimed slurry, crucibles, junction boxes, and low iron glass used in the production of solar PV modules. These companies are targeting total investments of over US$275 million in Changzhou. ‘We are very excited by the advancement of the Changzhou Trina Photovoltaic Industrial Park and the opportunity to form strong partnerships with each of these key suppliers,’ said Jifan Gao, Trina Solar’s Chairman and CEO.

The five suppliers plan to build production facilities in Changzhou and enter into long-term supply agreements with Trina Solar. Their presence in Changzhou will Trina ensure a steady supply of its key supply chain components, while providing the company with lower material costs, among other logistical advantages.

The business model for many of these new solar energy firms, such as Suntech, Yingli and Jing’ao, follows a vertically integrated path. Some companies such as LDK or CSUN, however, are planning to specialize in a limited number of steps in the supply chain.

In a recent survey of Chinese manufacturers by SEMI, 88% of panel suppliers are set to lower or stabilize prices by reducing waste, with 28% saying this will form part of their strategy, a further 27% intend to increase automation, 25% upgrading management systems and a fifth aiming for vertical integration

Chinese PV manufacturers are also garnering recognition on the global stage. For example, based on its recent analysis of the solar energy development market, Frost & Sullivan recognized Suntech with the 2008 Global Frost & Sullivan Company of the Year Award for solar energy development. Each year, Frost & Sullivan presents this award to the company that has demonstrated unparalleled excellence in design and delivery of high-quality PV, in this case for Suntech’s low-cost, high-quality, innovative, and energy-efficient PV cells and modules and system integration solutions.

‘The company’s pioneering success in developing energy-efficient, cost-effective and customizable building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems and crystalline PV cells, and modules for solar energy conversion into electricity are highly commendable,’ says Frost & Sullivan Research Analyst Mary John, adding ‘It has gone beyond just meeting global energy needs to anticipating them as well.’ The company is export focused and ranks among the top three suppliers in the three largest solar markets – Germany, Spain, and the United States.

In conclusion, while the global PV industry is certain to grow over the next several years, considerable uncertainty surrounds the Chinese market. Polysilicon shortages will remain in effect for the next 18 months and sources of future supply in China have not yet reached high confidence levels. Average efficiency of China-based PV technology is approximately 16–17% and top tier players are expected to improve this to 19% by the end of this year. Aside from materials, human resources will always remain limited in such a rapidly expanding industry. There will be a tough year from second half of 2008.

Even so, China’s solar cell capacity is expected to grow by some 68% in 2008 and with polysilicon constraints set to ease in the second half of 2009.

Chinese solar cell manufacturers need to cooperate with equipment & material vendors to improve the productivity and reduce the cost and the whole industry should collaborate to both advocate government policy to support a domestic market and improve competency in cost reductions.

Nonetheless, regardless of the ultimate scope and nature of the future industry, China’s role in the global industry will certainly grow and - like most industrial segments in China - achieve global impact.

Tom Morrow and Dylen Liu work with semiconductor industry group SEMI.
e-mail: dliu@semi.org
www.pvgroup.org






Figure 1: China solar cell capacity and production. Source: semi






Figure 2: China solar grade silicon ingot capacity. Source: semi

COMPASSION BEGINS WITH MYSELF

Compassion begins with myself. It is the doorway to gratefulness ~ which is the lifeblood of soul consciousness and the Unified Field : Allen L Roland

And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerst not the beam that is in thine own eye? : Holy Bible, Matthew 7:3

Not the faults of others, nor what others have done or left undone, but one's own deeds, done and left undone, should one consider: 50th Stanza from the Dhammapada (The Path of Wisdom)

Believers, let not a group of you mock another. Perhaps they are better than you. - - - Let not one of you find faults in another nor let anyone of you defame another: Holy Quran, Chapter 49:11 (Al-Hujarat)

You see in others what you actually see in yourself: The Guru Dronacharya in Mahabharata

I went in search of a bad person; I found none as I, seeing myself, found me the worst : Kabir, Saint Poet of North India

I wonder whether there is any one in this generation who accepts reproof, for if one says to him: Remove the mote from between your eyes, he would answer: Remove the beam from between your eyes!: Talmud: Baraitha: Rashi (1050-1115 AD) quoting Rabbi Tarfon

It is easy to see the faults of others, but not so easy to see one’s own faults: Gautama Buddha (563 - 483 BC)

$165 Billion for Iraq, $2.7 Billion for the US

Congress is starting a debate on the budget bill, which has $165 billion in funding for the war in Iraq, but only $2.7 billion for emergency spending in the US. That's a 61:1 ratio in favor of spending your tax dollars in Iraq, rather than here in the US.

The US infrastructure is failing, and levees all over the Midwest are failing, or getting ready to fail. Flooding is destroying homes and businesses across the region. Roads and bridges in America are in serious disrepair, and schools across the country are in need of renovation. The electric grid is a disaster. Investment in alternative energy and medical research to cure diseases is abysmally low.

I think its time for US taxpayers to demand that we rebuild America, not Iraq.

Contact your Congressional Representative now, before the vote. US taxpayers will save over $2 billion per week after we end the Iraq occupation. We will also save US lives, which is even more important.

Do it now.
(202) 224-3121

Cloned immune cells cleared patient's cancer

Ian Sample, science correspondent

A patient whose skin cancer had spread throughout his body has been given the all-clear after being injected with billions of his own immune cells.

Tests revealed that the 52-year-old man's tumours, which spread from his skin to his lung and groin, vanished within two months of having the treatment, and had not returned two years later.

Doctors attempted the experimental therapy as part of a clinical trial after the man's cancer failed to respond to conventional treatments.

The man is the first to benefit from the new technique, which uses cloning to produce billions of copies of a patient's immune cells. When they are injected into the body they attack the cancer and force it into remission.

Campaigners and scientists in the UK yesterday welcomed the breakthrough. "It's very exciting to see a cancer patient being successfully treated using immune cells cloned from his own body. While it's always good news when anyone with cancer gets the all-clear, this treatment will need to be tested in large clinical trials to work out how widely it could be used," said Ed Yong at Cancer Research UK.

Peter Johnson, chief clinician at the charity, added: "Although the technique is complex and difficult to use for all but a few patients, the principle that someone's own immune cells can be expanded and made to work in this way is very encouraging."

Cassian Yee at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre in Seattle extracted immune cells from the patient and found that a small proportion of them, called CD4 T cells, naturally attacked a protein found on nearly three-quarters of the cancer cells. Using cloning techniques, Yee's team replicated these cells until they had more than 5bn of them.

When the cells were injected into the patient they immediately began attacking the cancer. Intriguingly, the patient's immune system gradually began a wider offensive, attacking all the cancer cells in the body, according to a report in the New England Journal of Medicine. Two months later medical scans failed to pick up any signs of cancer in the patient.

The team believes the treatment could be effective in around a quarter of skin cancer patients whose immune systems have cells that are already primed to attack their tumours. "For this patient we were successful, but we would need to confirm the effectiveness of therapy in a larger study," Yee added.

In an accompanying article Louis Weiner, director of the Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Centre at Georgetown University, Washington, wrote that Yee's work "underscores the remarkable potential of the immune system to eradicate cancer, even when the disease is widespread".

The case showed that hopes to turn the immune system into a weapon against cancer was becoming a reality, Weiner added. "If the destination is not yet at hand, it is in sight. The endgame has begun."

Using the immune system to fight cancer could be much safer than existing treatments, which often have serious side effects.

The Guardian

More Power for the Fed as the Central Bank Cooks the Books

Mercury news is reporting Administration calls for giving Fed more powers .
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the government must move quickly to give the Federal Reserve more powers to regulate the financial system. Paulson said today that the central bank's powers should be expanded in the wake of the near collapse earlier this year of Bear Stearns, the giant Wall Street investment firm.

He said there was a need to consider quickly how to give the Fed the power it needs to obtain information from investment banks and the responsibility to intervene to protect the overall financial system. His comments were provided by the Treasury Department as excerpts from a speech he was to give later in the day.

Fed At Fault

This is of course as disgusting as it was predictable. It is all in accordance with the Fed Uncertainty Principle .

Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.

Notice the need to move "quickly". The reason to move quickly in this case is that Bush's days are numbered. Our next president, Obama, may very well have different ideas about what role the Fed should play. My position is clear: Want To Fix The Fed? Get Rid Of It .

Fed Is Cooking The Books

Please consider Fed's Bear Stearns Books Look Prime for Cooking .

Flip through the footnotes to the Fed's latest annual report, and you'll come across an open secret. The Fed doesn't follow normal accounting rules, as promulgated by any of the major standard-setting boards. Rather, the Fed writes its own, in a document called the Financial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks.

If you ever wanted to design an accounting regime to help a bank cook its books, the Fed's would be perfect. This doesn't exactly inspire faith in the U.S. financial system, at a time when a good example might help a lot.

Imagine if there were no rules specifying when a bank must bring an Enron-style special-purpose entity onto its own balance sheet. The Fed's accounting manual has none. Now picture an accounting system where a bank never had to recognize losses on any securities it holds, as long as it continues holding them. That, too, is the Fed's policy.

JP Morgan Chase & Co., which completed its purchase of Bear Stearns this month, will lend the Delaware entity $1 billion and absorb the first $1 billion of any losses. The Fed is on the hook for the rest. The central bank has hired an outside company, Black Rock Inc., to manage the sale of the assets over the next 10 years. The proceeds will go back to the Fed and then, if anything is left over, to JP Morgan after the Fed is paid.

If the Fed were a normal bank, it probably would have to put the Delaware special-purpose entity's assets and liabilities on its own balance sheet, under the Financial Accounting Standards Board's rules. The reason is that the Fed will bear most of the risk of losses. Under the Fed's 161-page accounting manual, however, there's no such requirement. That's because the manual doesn't have any rules on the subject. The Fed hasn't said yet what it will do.

Are we in a banking crisis? You bet we are, the worst one since the great depression. And the root cause of that crisis is the Fed's micro management of interest rates in conjunction with Bush wasting trillions of dollars we do not have in a senseless and in my opinion illegal war in Iraq, and Congress (both parties) that have no sense of fiscal responsibility.

Now instead of eliminating the problem, the screams are getting louder and louder to expand the powers of those causing the problem.

Ron Paul would fix this in a flash. It would be painful, but it would be short and painful. Giving the Fed more powers is guaranteed to do one thing: make the recovery process long and painful and worse.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bam Bam Bam and be Healed in the Name of Jesus

Most fundamental christian churches are nothing more than watered down religion to serve the denominations business and wealth or serve to make wealthy a non- denominational pastor. They emotionally brow beat and dumb down their parishioner's into submission to brainwash them into the "only way to heaven and the only way to a good life". But now we have found a pastor-healer that physically beats his parishioners into submission and people sit around in his sermons and laugh with him. WTF

More crazy religion out of the US. The real Deal is Here, Watch this mess... Click here.

THE REAL REASON FOR ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION

Derry Brownfield
July 6, 2006
NewsWithViews.com

I try to instill in my listeners (the Derry Brownfield Radio Show) on a daily basis that the United States is no longer a sovereign nation. Practically everything that happens here, be it the Patriot Act -- National ID -- Sustainable Communities -- Gun Control -- or a host of other programs and projects that destroy our God-given freedom is happening in Australia. The European Union, New Zealand and in most of the free world. It is because these nations are linked together in a global economic ambush, by global corporations, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. Animal identification is being forced upon us because of documents our officials have signed tying us to certain international alliances.

Doreen Hannes (animalwaitress@yahoo.com) has written a white paper proving that Animal Identification was spawned by international entanglements. This article will quote some of the highlights of her paper.

The players involved in the National Identification System (NAIS) are varied. The world Trade Organization (WTO) reached an agreement among participating countries several years ago in Uruguay called the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements. The SPS agrees that each member country can make regulations that must be met by other member countries in order to TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL GOODS with each other. These regulations must be in the interest of the country making the regulations to protect that country from disease, pests, or perceived health dangers. The TBT says developed countries must help less developed countries advance technologically in order to trade with other member countries.

The OIE is a World Animal Health Organization similar to our USDA but on a global basis. The OIE is independent of the United Nations but works closely with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Codex Alimentarius, both of which are tied to the United Nations. Codex may be compared to our Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on a global basis. The United States has membership in both the OIE and the UN which puts us under the control of Codex. The OIE has authority over all member nations' veterinary services. The OIE has a publication available on line called the Terrestrial Animal Health Standards commission (TAHSC) which contains information regarding (traceability product tracing and Codex standards).

Page 41 of the TAHSC states there is a critical relationship between animal identification and the traceability of animal products. Animal Identification and traceability are key tools for animal health and food safety. TAHSC relates to vaccination programs, herd and flock management, zoning, surveillance, early response, and animal movement and health measures in order to facilitate trade. A quote from page 41, "the competent Authority in partnership with relevant government agencies and the private sector should establish a legal framework for the IMPLEMENTATION AND ENFORCEMENT OF ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION AND ANIMAL TRACEABILITY in the country." The European Union declares that their animal identification requirements are in line with both Codex and the OIE.

Remember - the United States has signed documents with these member nations so we also are a member. As a member we must harmonize if we are to trade in agricultural goods. What if the United States refuses to implement a program of Animal Identification? World Trade Organization documents regarding the SPS and the TBT recommend disputes be mediated by the OIE or Codex.

It is plain and simple - this dictate is coming directly from the OIE - (world animal health organization) which is an off-shoot of the United Nation's Food and Agricultural Organization, and since the United States has signed documents creating membership in these foreign alliances, the US is obligated to create an Animal Identification program.

This is exactly what George Washington warned us against in 1796 when he gave his farewell address. Washington told us to "STEER CLEAR OF PERMANENT ALLIANCES WITH ANY PORTION OF THE FOREIGN WORLD." Thomas Jefferson stated during his 1801 Inaugural address, "ENTANGLING ALLIANCES WITH NONE." Our national leaders have forgotten American History and have us so entangled in foreign alliances that the noose is tightening around our economic neck and choking the life out of our sovereignty.



Doreen writes, "It is abundantly clear that through these international entanglements our officials are both legislating and regulating our God=Given and constitutionally guaranteed rights away in the name of international trade and globalization. These officials have agreed to implement a plan that is destructive to our nation's existence as well as our freedom to feed ourselves without intense surveillance. Is our freedom for sale in the global market? Is selling beef to Japan important enough to throw our Constitution and our children's future into the trash can? Can we not support ourselves agriculturally with the excellent controls we already have in place?"



© 2006 Derry Brownfield - All Rights Reserved